timeline of the future in forecasts

Prominent writers, social thinkers, politicians and scientists have all shared with the world their visions of the future. Some of these individual predictions have been completely off the mark, some have been accurate. However, taken together, they paint a picture of changing perceptions about various aspects of the future in our society and provide insight into aspirations and beliefs of their authors. Also, sometimes such predictions appear realistic enough to warrant a closer look at them. Below is a comprehensive list of major future events, including technological inventions and scientific advances, that were repeatedly predicted by various authors, but that have not yet come into being. The list is centered not around the authors, but around specific events. In most cases alternative time estimates offered by other authors are provided. Since the futurist authors come from very different backgrounds (academic research, science fiction writing, politics, philosophy), the accuracy, realism and relevancy of their forecasts vary. The qualifications and bias of different authors are explained.

The list of future events (structured by topic)

currently technological forecasts only

Artificial intelligence and robotics

Emotional robots

2010 - Cynthia Breazeal, 2004 http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/12.07/race.html - many people have criticized MIT forecasts in robotics as overoptimistic

Robots capable of manual labour tasks

2009 - robots that perform searching and fetching tasks in unmodified library environment, Professor Angel del Pobil (University Jaume I, Spain), 2004 http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/technology/3897583.stm
2029 - robots performing most household tasks, Dr. Joanne Pransky, a robotics expert http://www.membrana.ru/articles/global/2004/10/27/233300.html
2030 - robots capable of performing at human level at most manual jobs Marshall Brain, 2003 http://www.marshallbrain.com/robotic-nation.htm
2034 - robots (home automation systems) performing most household tasks, Helen Greiner, Chairman of iRobot http://features.engadget.com/entry/8154940951659251/

Robots beat human world champions in soccer

2050 - RoboCup mission statement, 1997 http://www.robocup.org/

AI reaches the human level

Biology

Artificial eyes

2007 - a 1Kpixel artificial retina with 1000 electrodes (Department of Energy, 2004) http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2004-10/ddoe-dlu101404.php

Use of animal organs for transplantation

2007 - first genetically modified pig with organs that aren't rejected by humans (South Korea's Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, 2004)
2010 - practical use of such animal donors in surgery (same source)

Rejuvenation of mammals

2014-2024 - (International Association of Biomedical Gerontology, 2004) - comprehensive functional rejuvenation of middle-aged mice http://www.nickbostrom.com/fable/dragon.html#_ftn2

Cloning of dinosaurs

2023 - (Arthur C. Clarke, 2001)

Communications

All communications are IP-based

2008 - internal company plans (British Telecom, 2004)
2014 - Paul Mockapetris, inventor of the DNS system, 2004 http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/technology/3832527.stm

Nanotechnology

Nanomachines used in fabrics and armor

2020 - nanomachines in soldier armor controlled by on-board computer can change the properties of fabric from flexible to bullet-proof, treat wounds and filter out chemical and biological weapons, nanomuscle fibers can provide an exoskeleton US Army, estimates from The Vision 2020 Future Warrior project, 2004

Universal replicator is developed

2040 - Arthur C. Clarke, 2001

Space

Space flights become available to the general public

2011 - Arthur C. Clarke, 2001 - originally Clarke expected it to happen by 2001 (described in )
Progress so far: First space tourist, Dennis Tito flew to space on June 5th, 2001. First privately-funded space flight occurred on June 21, 2004, when SpaceShipOne was piloted by Mike Melvill to the hight of 100 km.
See also: private spaceflight