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Millennium Ecosystem AssessmentLaunched by United Nations Secretary-General Kofi Annan in 2001, the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA) is a comprehensive study of the state of the global ecosystem. More than 1,300 scientists in more than 95 countries have spent 2001-2005 synthesising what we know about how the world's ecosystems influence human well-being, and how changes in these ecosystem impact people. The MA has started to release its report - a statement from the review board and the main synthesis report have been released at a press conference and on the web Board Statement Synthesis Report All the more detailed and thematic syntheses will also be available from the MA as they are finalized through the summer. The main reports will be published as books in the fall. =Main Findings= 1. Over the past 50 years, humans have changed ecosystems more rapidly and extensively than in any comparable period of time in human history, largely to meet rapidly growing demands for food, fresh water, timber, fiber and fuel. This has resulted in a substantial and largely irreversible loss in the diversity of life on Earth. 2. The changes that have been made to ecosystems have contributed to substantial net gains in human well-being and economic development, but these gains have been achieved at growing costs in the form of: - the degradation of many ecosystem services
- increased risks of nonlinear changes,
- the exacerbation of poverty for some groups of people.
These problems, unless addressed, will substantially diminish the benefits that future generations obtain from ecosystems. 3. The degradation of ecosystem services could grow significantly worse during the first half of this century and is a barrier to reducing global poverty and achieving the Millennium Development Goals. 4. The challenge of reversing the degradation of ecosystem while meeting increasing demands for ecological services can be partially met under some scenarios considered by the MA, but will involve significant changes in policies, institutions and practices that are not currently under way. Many options exist to conserve or enhance specific ecosystem services in ways that reduce negative trade-offs or that provide positive synergies with other ecosystem services. The bottom line of the MA findings is that human actions are depleting Earths natural capital, putting such strain on the environment that the ability of the planets ecosystems to sustain future generations can no longer be taken for granted. At the same time, the assessment shows that with appropriate actions it is possible to reverse the degradation of many ecosystem services over the next 50 years, but the changes in policy and practice required are substantial and not currently underway. Some specific findings The MA is the most comprehensive survey of the ecological state of the planet. It concludes that the way society has caused irreversible changes that are degrading the ecological processes that support life on Earth. Some findings: - 60% of world ecosystem services have been degraded
- Of 24 evaluated ecosystems, 15 are being damaged
- About a quarter of the Earth's land surface is now cultivated.
- People now use between 40 percent and 50 percent of all available freshwater running off the land. Water withdrawals has doubled over the past 40 years.
- Over a quarter of all fish stocks are overharvested.
- Since 1980, about 35 percent of mangroves have been lost
- About 20% of corals were lost in just 20 years; 20% degraded
- Nutrient pollution has led to eutrophication of waters and coastal dead zones
- Species extinction rates are now 100-1,000 times above the background rate
Some recommendations - Remove subsidies to agriculture, fisheries and energy sources that harm the environment.
- Encourage landowners to manage property in ways that enhancethe supply of ecosystem services, such as carbon storage, and the generation of fresh water.
- Protect more areas from development, especially in the oceans.
=What's New in the MA= The MA, like the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), assesses current knowledge, scientific literature, and data. Assessments of this nature synthesize information that has previously been available, and do not present new research findings. Nevertheless, three aspects of the MA do represent important new contributions. - First, the findings of this assessment are the consensus view of the largest body of social and natural scientists ever assembled to assess knowledge in this area. Like the IPCC, the availability of this broad consensus view of scientists is an important value added part of the process and an important contribution to decision-makers. The assessment identifies where broad consensus exists on findings but also where the information is insufficient to reach firm conclusions.
- Second, the focus of this assessment on ecosystem services and their link to human wellbeing and development needs is unique. By examining the environment through the framework of ecosystem services, it becomes much easier to identify how changes in ecosystems influence human well-being and to provide information in a form that decisionmakers can weigh alongside other social and economic information. The MA framework of ecosystem services and links to human well-being is already being adopted by other institutions and incorporated into other processes.
- Third, the assessment identified a number of emergent findings, conclusions that can only be reached when a large body of existing information is examined together. Four of these stand out:
- The balance sheet. Although individual ecosystem services have been assessed previously, the finding that 60% of a group of 24 ecosystem services examined by the MA are being degraded is the first comprehensive audit of the status of Earths natural capital.
- Nonlinear changes. Nonlinear (accelerating or abrupt) changes have been previously identified by a number of individual studies of ecosystems. The MA is the first assessment to conclude that ecosystem changes are increasing the likelihood of nonlinear changes in ecosystems and the first to note the important consequences of this finding for human well-being. Examples of such changes include disease emergence, abrupt alterations in water quality, the creation of dead zones in coastal waters, the collapse of fisheries, and shifts in regional climate.
- Drylands. Because the assessment focuses on the linkages between ecosystems and human well-being, a somewhat different set of priorities emerge from it. While the MA does confirm that major problems exist with tropical forests and coral reefs, from the standpoint of linkages between ecosystems and people, the most significant challenges involve dryland ecosystems. These ecosystems are particularly fragile, but they are also the places where human population is growing most rapidly, biological productivity is least, and poverty is highest.
- Nutrient loading. The MA confirms the emphasis that decision-makers are already giving to addressing important drivers of ecosystem change such as climate change and habitat loss. But the MA finds that excessive nutrient loading of ecosystems is one of the major drivers today and will grow significantly worse in the coming decades unless action is taken. The issue of excessive nutrient loading, although well studied, is not yet receiving significant policy attention in many countries or internationally.
While the MA findings do identify significant problems related to management of ecosystems, these problems need to be viewed in the context of the MA finding that the changes people have made to ecosystems have contributed to substantial net gains in human well-being and economic development. The problems identified in the MA including growing costs in the form of degradation of ecosystem services, increased risks of nonlinear changes, and the exacerbation of poverty for some groups of people are serious and the MA shows that these problems could grow much more serious in the coming decades. At the same time, the assessment shows that the future really is in our hands. People can reverse the degradation of many ecosystem services over the next 50 years, but the changes in policy and practice required are substantial and not currently underway.
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