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Consensus ScienceConsensus science is a term used to describe a theory or claim believed to be founded on insufficient evidence or research, and to owe its support primarily to popular opinion. The term may also be used by people wishing to revive a theory that is generally believed to be false, but that they believe has not been proven so. People using the term believe that the exclusive or primary use of scientific consensus constitutes an appeal to authority or appeal to the majority, and that the underlying evidence should be evaluated instead. Note that the term scientific consensus refers to the actual majority agreement of a particular field, while the term consensus science refers to the use of that consensus as a primary means to demonstrate, establish, or promote a scientific hypothesis or theory. One who perceives a scientific theory to be supported by both scientific consensus and conclusive evidence would not consider it "consensus science", because a supporting argument can be easily formulated using the existing conclusive evidence without relying primarily on consensus for support. The term "consensus science" does not refer simply to a scientific theory which has a consensus, but rather to one which uses that consensus as a primary support. History and Background Although it existed beforehand, the term consensus science gained wider exposure after a 2003 speech by Michael Crichton entitled, "Aliens Cause Global Warming" http://www.sepp.org/NewSEPP/GW-Aliens-Crichton.html, in which he disussed what he believed to be the impropriety of basing scientific conclusions primarily on scientific consensus. This is the speech which fostered the quote: - "Let's be clear: the work of science has nothing whatever to do with consensus. Consensus is the business of politics. Science, on the contrary, requires only one investigator who happens to be right, which means that he or she has results that are verifiable by reference to the real world. In science consensus is irrelevant. What is relevant is reproducible results. The greatest scientists in history are great precisely because they broke with the consensus.
- There is no such thing as consensus science. If it's consensus, it isn't science. If it's science, it isn't consensus. Period."
--Michael Crichton Another well known individual who publicly cautions about the proper role of consensus in science is Brian David Josephson, Nobel Laureate in Physics. Professor Josephson wrote: "if scientists as a whole denounce an idea this should not necessarily be taken as proof that the said idea is absurd: rather, one should examine carefully the alleged grounds for such opinions and judge how well these stand up to detailed scrutiny." Josephson's home page Examples It was widely believed that saccharine is dangerous based on the conclusions of animal studies conducted in the 1970s that appeared to show it could cause cancer. However, further studies have failed to confirm that analysis and none have shown a link between normal doses of saccharine and cancer in humans. In this case, the apparent scientific consensus turned out to be false. It is used as an example of the dangers of "consensus science". There are a number of popular theories which are described by some as consensus science and much like the label junk science, there is often considerable disagreement as to which are supported primarily by consensus and which by conclusive evidence. The term consensus science is often used as a criticism of the subject or theory to which it is applied, as use of the term implies that scientific consensus is used as the primary means of support. However, it can also be used non-judgmentally as a means of arguing the need for more or better research to clarify the validity of a given theory. Criticisms The major criticism of the consensus science term is the claim that by using the term, one is insisting that theories have conclusive or compelling evidence. However, a consensus can arise based upon unconfirmed results. Although reproducibility is an essential part of the scientific method, duplicating a result may be expensive, difficult, or blocked by ambiguous procedures in original study. The Inertia of Consensus In a standard application of the psychological principle of confirmation bias, scientific research that supports the existing scientific consensus is usually received more favorably than research which contradicts the existing consensus. In some cases, those who question the current paradigm are at times heavily criticized for their assessments. Research that questions a well supported scientific theory is usually more closely scrutinized in order to assess whether it is well researched and carefully documented. This caution and careful scrutiny is used to ensure that science is protected from a divergence away from ideas supported by extensive research and toward new ideas which have yet to stand the testing by extensive research. However, this often results in conflict between the supporters of new ideas and supporters of more dominant ideas, both in cases where the new idea is later accepted and in cases where it is later abandoned. Kuhn's paradigm shift A paradigm shift is the term first used by Thomas Kuhn in his famous 1962 book The Structure of Scientific Revolutions to describe the process and result of a change in basic assumptions within the ruling theory of science. He noted those doing "normal science" within a paradigm often accumulated detail within an accepted theory, doing "puzzle solving" without investigating limits of the theory until there was overwhelming evidence of problems with the theory. Aspects of resistance Each of the examples below demonstrate different aspects of the resistance to challenges to scientific orthodoxy. While these are not the only examples of this, they are representative of various type of this resistance. More detail on the individual controversies may be found in the articles relating to the people and issues. In 1950, Immanuel Velikovsky published Worlds in Collision, a book that described an elaborate theory in which the earth's orbit was affected by extraordinary events within the solar system. See Velikovsky's page for details on his theories and their criticism. In 1990, Dr. Richard Lindzen of MIT wrote an article for the American Meteorological Society in which he criticized the recommendation "that skepticism be stifled" with regard to the issues surrounding the question of global warming. The comment was in reference to an editorial in the Boston Globe of 12-17-1989. PDF file. In 1992, Newsweek journalist Greg Easterbrook wrote about calls by Al Gore and Paul R. Ehrlich for journalistic self-censorship about criticisms of climate change, saying that, "the desire to be exempt from confronting the arguments against one's position traditionally is seen when a movement fears it is about to be discredited." quoted in The Science & Environmental Policy Project. In 2001, the controversial political scientist and statistician Bjrn Lomborg published a book called The Skeptical Environmentalist. Subsequently many took issue with Lomborg and the book, subjecting him and his book to criticism and calling for his professional censure. Lomborg has received both fame and notoriety as a result of the extensive controversy and criticism surrounding his writing. Lomborg has also received extensive criticism and ridicule from some environmental scientists and has become a point of reference for others who disapprove of the mainstream view. See also - Consensus decision-making is a decision process that not only seeks the agreement of most participants, but also to resolve or mitigate the objections of the minority to achieve the most agreeable decision
- False consensus effect refers to the tendency for people to overestimate the degree to which others agree with them.
- Groupthink is one process by which a group can make bad or irrational decisions.
- Majoritarianism asserts that a majority is entitled to a certain degree of primacy.
- Philosophy of science studies the philosophical foundations, presumptions and implications of science.
- Propaganda is a specific type of message presentation aimed at serving an agenda.
- Pseudoscience is any body of knowledge purported to be scientific or supported by science but which fails to comply with the scientific method.
- Scientific consensus is the majority agreement of the body of scientists in a particular field of science.
- Scientific method is the underlying scholarly methods of scientific practice.
- Sociology of scientific knowledge considers social influences on science.
See also logical fallacies External Links
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