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Voter SwingVoter swing is a term which refers to the measurement of the shift from one voting preference to another between elections. Example UK Election One - Electorate 100 - Labour 40 votes
- Conservatives 44 votes
- Lib. Democrats 16 votes
UK Election Two - Electorate 100 - Labour 39 votes ( - 1% of total)
- Conservatives 32 votes ( - 12% of total)
- Lib. Democrats 29 votes ( + 13% of total)
Analysis of Example In the above example there is said to be a swing from the Conservatives to the Lib. Dem's of 12.5% (averaging ). Note some commentators suggest swing only exists for the first and second place, but we can see that the switch from the Conservatives to the Lib Dems is the real story of this particular election. Nevertheless, it remains true that in a First-past-the-post election system it is the swing between the two main parties that determines the result, both locally and ultimately, nationally (see Duverger's law). Although the Liberal Democrats have almost doubled their vote, the headline will be that Labour has captured the seat from the Conservatives. We therefore do need a measure of how well one is doing against the other - the swing between them, as it is this figure that would be used in the swingometer. The swing from Conservatives to Labour in the example above is calculated to be 5.5% (the average of -1 and 12). Swing voters In the atypical example above, it looks as though voters have been changing their preference, and so should be referred to as swing voters. This assumes, however, that the 100 voters in the second election are the same 100 voters in the first. Voters die, move, abstain or simply fail to register to vote. Therefore, although we can say that a 5% swing might mean that 5 voters in a 100 have swung from one party to another, the reality is that it is extremely unlikely to be so neat. A 5% swing could occur without a single voter's preference changing. In the simple example above, although voters probably have been changing their preferences, there is nothing to indicate anyone has switched from Conservative to Labour, yet a 5.5% swing has occurred.
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