papal conclave, 2005

As a result of the death of Pope John Paul II on April 2, 2005, there will be a Papal Conclave in 2005 in which the 265th Pope of the Roman Catholic Church will be chosen. According to canon law the election process must begin between fifteen and twenty days following the previous pope's death (in this case between April 17 and April 22).

Papal election process

Main article: Papal election

A papal conclave is the process by which the College of Cardinals selects a new pope. It will be the first papal election subject to the rules set out in the Universi Dominici Gregis, a 1996 apostolic constitution. At the death of John Paul II on April 2 2005, there were 117 Cardinals known to be under the age of 80. The late pope created another cardinal secretly (in pectore) in 2003, but his age and identity have never been made public: unless John Paul revealed the name of his in pectore cardinal publicly before he died, the appointment will have lapsed and he will therefore be ineligible to vote for the new pope. It is possible that John Paul revealed the name to other members of the curia or his staff just before his death and that the in pectore cardinal's identity simply has not yet been revealed, due to the attention focused on the pope's death. If he did not, the in pectore cardinalate expired on April 2. Speaking on April 5 the late pope's spokesman confirmed that John Paul II had left some form of testament (either his will or a document alongside his will) to be revealed after his death. He could not confirm whether the document contained the name of the in pectore cardinal. While past in pectore cardinals have been revealed vocally by popes, it is unclear whether a written identification of the person by the pope that was revealed after his death is adequate, though some Curia officials have suggested that a written revelation would be sufficient to ensure the in pectore's membership of the College of Cardinals. Universi Domenici Gregis provides that, breaking with tradition, the Cardinals will not be locked in the Sistine Chapel throughout this conclave; however,while lodged elsewhere in the Vatican while not in session, they will not have access to television, radio, or telephone during the election process. All but three of the electors were appointed by John Paul II. It was Pope Paul VI who decreed in 1971 that Cardinals aged over 80 as of the start of the conclave could no longer vote in papal elections, a rule modified by John Paul II in 1996 to specify Cardinals aged over 80 when the Papacy falls vacant. Paul VI also limited the maximum number of cardinal electors to 120, though John Paul II disregarded this limit when elevating cardinals. There are currently 183 cardinals in all (not counting the in pectore cardinal), all but fourteen appointed by John Paul II. The cardinal electors come from 53 nations (up slightly from the 49 represented in 1978) around the world, 35 of which have only a single representative. The Italian electors are the most numerous at twenty, followed by the United States contingent with eleven. It appears likely that this will be the largest number of cardinals to ever enter a conclave, the two conclaves of 1978 each having had 111 electors present.

b>Papal Conclave, April 2005
olspan="1" style="background:#ffffff;"\|ELECTORS	colspan="1" \|117
tyle="background:#cccccc;"\|Absent	align="center" style="background:#cccccc;" \|At least 1
tyle="background:#cccccc;"\|Present	align="center" style="background:#cccccc;" \|?
tyle="background:#f0f0f0;"\|Europe	style="background:#f0f0f0;" align="center"\|78
tyle="background:#f0f0f0;"\|Latin America	style="background:#f0f0f0;" align="center"\|21
tyle="background:#f0f0f0;"\|United States & Canada	style="background:#f0f0f0;" align="center"\|14
tyle="background:#f0f0f0;"\|Africa	style="background:#f0f0f0;" align="center"\|11
tyle="background:#f0f0f0;"\|Asia	style="background:#f0f0f0;" align="center"\|10
tyle="background:#f0f0f0;"\|Oceania	style="background:#f0f0f0;" align="center"\|2
tyle="background:#f0f0f0;"\|Middle East	style="background:#f0f0f0;" align="center"\|1

Electors by country:

20 electors: Italy
11 electors; United States
6 electors: Germany, Spain
5 electors: France
4 electors: Brazil, Mexico
3 electors: Canada, Colombia, India, Poland
2 electors: Chile, Hungary, Japan, Nigeria, Philippines, Portugal, Ukraine
1 elector: Argentina, Australia, Austria, Belgium, Bolivia, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Cameroon, Congo, Croatia, Cuba, Czech Republic, Dominican Republic, England, Ghana, Guatemala, Honduras, Indonesia, Ireland, Ivory Coast, Latvia, Lithuania, Madagascar, Netherlands, New Zealand, Nicaragua, Peru, Scotland, South Africa, Sudan, Switzerland, Syria, Tanzania, Thailand, Uganda, Vietnam

Past voting records

After a long pontificate, the conclave frequently selects an elderly pope, which is designed to lead to a brief, transitional pontificate: "After a fat pope a lean pope," as one Italian saying runs. One much speculated papabile is Joseph Cardinal Ratzinger who will turn 78 just before the conclave opens. He is a German social conservative who is Dean of the College of Cardinals and was the closest aide and confidant to Pope John Paul II. Particularly, he was known as the Pope's enforcer on matters of doctrine. Ratzinger is favored by those who want to preserve John Paul II's conservative views, and has been described by his supporters as the pope-in-waiting, although this may count against him among fellow cardinals. Others believe he will more likely be a 'king-maker' who could influence the decision on who becomes pope rather than be elected himself. (A cardinal who successfully procures the election of a preferred candidate is sometimes termed a grand elector of a conclave.)

Often very different

The newly elected pope often contrasts dramatically with his predecessor. The controversial one-time populist turned conservative, long-lived Pope Pius IX (1846–1878) was succeeded by the aristocratic diplomatic Pope Leo XIII (1878–1903). He in turn was succeeded by the lower-class, bluntly outspoken Pope Pius X (1903–1914). Pius's rugged ultraconservatism contrasted with the low-key moderatism of Giacomo Cardinal della Chiesa, Pope Benedict XV (1914–1922), which again contrasted with the former librarian mountain-climber Achille Cardinal Ratti, Pope Pius XI (1922–1939), who led Roman Catholicism with an authoritarianism more akin to Pope Pius X, who also shared his temper. Pius XI was replaced in 1939 by the aristocratic ultra-insider Curialist, Pius XI's Secretary of State Eugenio Cardinal Pacelli, Pope Pius XII (1939–1958). Pius XII was seen as one of the great thinkers in the papacy in the 20th century. He was also the ultimate insider; his family were descended from the papal aristocracy, with his brother working as a lawyer for the Holy See. Pius was then replaced by the lower-class, elderly, popular, informal Pope John XXIII (1958–1963). The contrast between diffident, intellectual and distant Pius XII and the humble, in his own words "ordinary" Good Pope John was dramatic, with none more surprised at the election than Pope John himself, who had his own return rail ticket in his pocket when he was elected. John proved to be a radical break with the two previous popes, and indeed with most of the popes of the 20th century. After a short but dramatic pontificate, the surprise John was replaced by the widely expected victor Giovanni Cardinal Montini, whom many believed would have been elected in 1958, had he been a cardinal then. Montini, Pope Paul VI (1963–1978) like Pius XII, was a curialist. (He had worked with Pacelli in the 1930s and 1940s in the curia.) Yet Pope Paul was succeeded (albeit for a short time) by the non-Curialist Pope John Paul I (1978), whom it was said was chosen not as an experienced insider nor administrator, but as a "simple, holy man". He in turn was succeeded by the non-Italian Pope John Paul II (1978–2005), who was an intellectual heavyweight unprecedented since Pius XII. In that context, Ratzinger's views may prove to be too close to the late Pope John Paul II to mark a break. Past history would suggest the selection of someone less theological and charismatic, a more administrative pope, given that John Paul II was not noted as an administrator, but more of a thinker and world leader. Nor does the fact that 114 of the 117 cardinal-electors who will participate in the 2005 conclave were appointed by John Paul II mean that a new pope will be similar to John Paul. Past cardinals have often voted for someone radically different to the pope who appointed them. Few expected Angelo Roncalli to be chosen by a conclave many of whose cardinal-electors had been chosen by Pope Pius XII. In another example, most of the cardinal-electors in 1878 had been chosen by the right-wing Pius IX. Yet they chose the liberal Gioacchino Cardinal Pecci, who became Leo XIII. And many of Leo's chosen cardinal-electors, chosen by a liberal pope, chose the right-wing lower-class populist conservative, Giuseppe Melchiorre Cardinal Sarto (Pius X).

Early speculations for 2005 conclave

There has been speculation since 2001 about who the next pope will be, and names of possible candidates have been floated in the press. These are unofficially known as the papabili, an Italian word which roughly translates as pope-able. Early speculation, before John Paul II's final illness and death, drew attention to the fact that of the five nations with the largest Catholic populations, only one is European, that being Italy. Forty-six percent of the world's Catholics are in Latin America; the Philippines have more Catholics than Italy; some 120 million Catholics are in Africa. Yet 35 percent of the voting cardinals either officially represent an Italian diocese or work for the Vatican administration, the Curia. http://slate.msn.com/id/2089815/#ContinueArticle.

b>Italian cardinals as percentage of total College of Cardinals (1903-2005)
olspan="1" style="background:#ccc;"\|2005	colspan="1" style="background:#f0f0f0;"\|17.09
tyle="background:#f0f0f0;"\|1978 (Oct)	align="center"\|22.5
tyle="background:#f0f0f0;"\|1978 (Aug)	align="center"\|22.8
tyle="background:#f0f0f0;"\|1963	align="center"\|35.36
tyle="background:#f0f0f0;"\|1958	align="center"\|35.8
tyle="background:#f0f0f0;"\|1939	align="center"\|54.8
tyle="background:#f0f0f0;"\|1922	align="center"\|51.6
tyle="background:#f0f0f0;"\|1914	align="center"\|50.76
tyle="background:#f0f0f0;"\|1903	align="center"\|56.25

The papabili

A number of men have been mentioned as possible successors (ages in parentheses):

Joseph Ratzinger, Cardinal Bishop, Dean of the College of Cardinals, last Prefect of the Congregation for the Doctrine of the Faith (77)
Angelo Sodano, Cardinal Bishop, Vice-Dean of the College of Cardinals, last Cardinal Secretary of State (77)
Alfonso Lpez Trujillo, Cardinal Bishop, last President of the Pontifical Council for the Family (69)
Giovanni Battista Re, Cardinal Bishop, last Prefect of the Congregation for Bishops (71)
Godfried Danneels, Archbishop of Mechelen-Brussels (72)
Jean-Marie Cardinal Lustiger, retired Archbishop of Paris (78)
Francis Arinze, last Prefect of the Congregation for Divine Worship and the Discipline of the Sacrament (72)
Miloslav Vlk, Archbishop of Prague (72)
Dionigi Tettamanzi, Archbishop of Milan (71)
Christoph Schnborn, Archbishop of Vienna (60)
Norberto Rivera Carrera, Archbishop of Mexico City (62)
Ivan Dias, Archbishop of Mumbai (68)
Geraldo Majella Agnelo, Archbishop of Salvador da Bahia (71)
scar Andrs Rodrguez, Archbishop of Tegucigalpa (62)
Juan Luis Cipriani Thorne, Archbishop of Lima (61)
Cludio Hummes, Archbishop of So Paulo (70)
Jorge Mario Bergoglio, Archbishop of Buenos Aires (68)
Jos da Cruz Policarpo, Patriarch of Lisbon (69)
Severino Poletto, Archbishop of Turin (72)
Cormac Murphy-O'Connor, Archbishop of Westminster (72)
Lubomyr Husar, Ukrainian Rite Major-Archbishop of Lviv (72)
Angelo Scola, Patriarch of Venice (63)
Ennio Antonelli, Archbishop of Florence (68)
Tarcisio Bertone, Archbishop of Genoa (70)
Peter Kodwo Appiah Turkson, Archbishop of Cape Coast (56)
Daro Castrilln Hoyos, last Prefect of the Congregation for the Clergy (75)
Crescenzio Sepe, last Prefect of the Congregation for the Evangelization of Peoples (61)
Walter Kasper, last President of the Pontifical Council for the Promotion of Christian Unity (72)
Jaime Lucas Ortega y Alamino, Archbishop of Havana (68)
Jaime Sin, retired Archbishop of Manila (76)

(Note: Most offices in the Roman Curia expire when the current pope dies. Those cardinals listed as being last to hold an office held those positions at the time of John Paul's death.) Only three of the current voting cardinals, Baum, Ratzinger and Sin participated in the 1978 conclaves. Though Vaticanologists regard the current College of Cardinals as conservative, past history (the 1878, 1903 and 1958 conclaves offer clear examples) does not support the theory that a college of cardinals, even if picked by a pope clearly identified as conservative or liberal, and presumed to share his theological outlook, will necessarily vote for someone fitting the same category. Among the presumptions of current vaticanologists are:

The College of Cardinals, though less of a European domination than before, is unlikely to opt this time for an African pope, the last African pope being Pope Gelasius I (died in 496), or one from the Philippines.
A selection of a pope from the United States or France would be seen as too controversial.
Italian cardinals wish to see the election of another Italian pope and so may rally around one unified Italian choice, rather than as in 1978 split into rival factions, allowing the selection of a non-Italian. (Media reports suggest that Cardinal Tettamanzi of Milan may well be the unified Italian candidate.) One should keep in mind how historically rare non-Italian popes are, the last non-Italian to ascend to the position before John Paul II was Pope Adrian VI almost five hundred years ago (1522–1523).
A Latin American pope is a strong possibility, and it would be a first in history; the Archbishops of Buenos Aires, Havana, Mexico City, So Paulo and Tegucigalpa are possible candidates, as are Colombian Cardinals Alfonso Lpez Trujillo and Daro Castrilln Hoyos.
Choosing the elderly Cardinal Ratzinger, the most distinguished of the cardinals and closest associate to John Paul II, is seen as a solution which will give the Church more time to consider the future. It is also seen as an acceptable compromise between the "Italian" and "third world" factions.
A curial cardinal, whose career has been mainly in the administration the Holy See, may be at a disadvantage. Three fourths of the cardinal electors are pastoral cardinals; archbishops of large dioceses. A cardinal who has had both a curial and pastoral career, such as Francis Arinze and Ivan Dias, may be able to gather support from both groups and become a compromise candidate.

Three points are also important to note.

Firstly, cardinals are not restricted to electing a pope from among themselves. In theory any practicing Roman Catholic male, and certainly any member of its clergy, is eligible for election. While the odds on that are slim (the last man not already a Cardinal at the time of his election was Pope Urban VI, who served from 1378 to 1389). Giovanni Montini (later Pope Paul VI) is rumoured to have received some votes in the 1958 conclave, even though at that stage he was still only Archbishop of Milan, having been inexplicably denied the expected red hat by Pope Pius XII. It is possible that some archbishop who cardinals believe should have been appointed to the College of Cardinals but who may have been overlooked by John Paul II, possibly because the late pope was too ill at the end to hold another consistory to appoint new cardinals, might be chosen.

Secondly, cardinal-electors may always elect one of the cardinals who cannot vote because they are over eighty years of age. The likeliest reason for such a choice would be inability to agree on a younger candidate. Also, a radical step like an African or Latin American pope might be tempered by attempting to ensure that the new pontificate would be relatively short, by choosing one of the older such cardinals, such as the widely respected former Dean, Bernardin Cardinal Gantin.

Thirdly, and crucially, papabile cardinals are not always elected pope. According to the old saying, "He who enters the conclave as Pope leaves it as a Cardinal." A man who enters the Conclave certain of victory in the election is often not the man finally selected to be pope. In 1978, Sergio Cardinal Pignedoli, who was seen as a strong contender for the papacy, was reported to have gone on a crash diet to fit the papal cassock. Instead Albino Cardinal Luciani, who was so convinced that he would not be elected that he never got his hair cut (as his official portrait showed) and whose feet were so swollen he could not wear new shoes bought for him by his family, was elected.

Facts from past conclaves in the 20th century

Non-papabili elected pope

Pope Pius X
Pope Pius XI
Pope John XXIII
Pope John Paul I
Pope John Paul II (although John Paul I had predicted Karol Wojtyła - the future John Paul II - would succeed him)

Papabili elected pope

Heavily favored papabili not elected to the papacy

Giuseppe Cardinal Siri: "guaranteed" to win in 1958, 1963 and 1978 (twice) but never did.
Giovanni Cardinal Benelli: "certain" to replace his friend Pope John Paul I in October 1978 but beaten by Karol Jzef Cardinal Wojtyła.
Mariano Cardinal Rampolla: Leo XIII's Secretary of State. He was headed for victory in the 1903 conclave only to be vetoed by Cardinal Puzyna de Kosielsko, the Bishop of Krakow, on behalf of Emperor Franz Joseph I of Austria. With Rampolla blocked, Giuseppe Melchiorre Cardinal Sarto was elected and became Pope Pius X. Pius's first act was to abolish the rights of states to veto.